SSTI board member Bruce Mehlman, a former George W. Bush administration official and founder of Mehlman Castagnetti Rosen & Thomas, recently published a midterm election presentation that has been discussed by numerous DC publications. Mehlman included an analysis of the last 10 senatorial midterm elections (see slide 15). The results suggest that incumbent senators of a different party than the president are very likely to win reelection, even in states carried by the president. Translating this to the 2018 midterms: Democrats hold 10 seats in states won by President Donald Trump. Based on this historical analysis, the party would have a 61 percent chance of carrying all 10 seats.[1] Meanwhile, Mehlman’s presentation states that seats held by the same party as the president face significantly lower odds. In the 2018 midterms, Republicans would have a 17 percent chance of retaining all three seats where one seat is in a state lost by the president, and two where the incumbent is not running for reelection.[2]