Artificial intelligence and the US labor market

Artificial intelligence (AI) is already well integrated into the American workforce; in 2022, 19% of American workers were in jobs identified as most exposed to AI, compared to 23% in the least exposed jobs, according to a study by Pew Research. Jobs identified as most exposed are those in which the most critical responsibilities can either be replaced or assisted by AI. In contrast, the least exposed jobs cannot currently be replaced or assisted. A recent study identified U.S. cities at risk of losing jobs to AI, finding more than 10 million jobs at-risk within those cities.

Looking into the future, AI is expected to be adopted by 80% of global organizations over the next five years, according to a 2023 World Economic Forum (WEF) survey, with an estimated 83 million jobs automated by 2027. The same survey found that despite this job displacement, there will be a net positive job creation caused by the technology.

WEF projects the largest losses in administrative roles, alongside traditional security, factory, and commerce roles. Within these, surveyed organizations predict a net decline of 26 million fewer global jobs by 2027 in administrative and record-keeping professions such as data entry, accounting, bookkeeping, and payroll clerks.

But where are these jobs being replaced in the U.S.?

A study by Chamber of Commerce, a Nevada-based for-profit company, identified the top 50 U.S. cities at risk of losing jobs to AI, finding over 10 million at-risk occupations within these cities alone.

Chamber of Commerce identified New York City as having the highest quantity of at-risk jobs at 1.18 million, followed by Los Angeles with 710,000, Chicago with 577,000, Dallas with 497,000, and Miami with 394,000.

Figure 1 below maps these cities along with the total number of jobs at risk and the total number of jobs at risk as a percentage of all jobs.

Figure 1: A map showing the cities most threatened by AI and the total number and percentage of jobs at risk.

The researchers identified Las Vegas as the city with the highest percentage of its jobs threatened by AI at nearly 16%, representing 162,000 jobs. Miami and Louisville follow at approximately 15%, with 394,000 and 96,000 at-risk jobs, respectively.

Las Vegas, Miami, and Louisville, in addition to Orlando, Grand Rapids, San Antonio, Phoenix, Salt Lake City, Detroit, and Nashville, were all identified as having over 14% of their jobs at risk.

Chamber of Commerce’s analysis and methodology can be found here, along with a breakdown of each city’s the top three fastest declining occupations over the next five years.