NSB Indicates Global Race Tightening for R&D Leadership

2004 S&E Indicators includes chapter of state-level metrics

The U.S. remains the world's leading producer and net exporter of high-technology products, ranking among the global leaders in research and development (R&D) spending. However, ongoing economic and workforce changes make the outlook for the future uncertain, according to Science and Engineering (S&E) Indicators 2004, a biennial report of the National Science Board (NSB) to the President.

S&E Indicators shows, for example, the U.S. now ranks 17th among nations surveyed in the proportion of its 18- to 24-year-olds earning natural S&E degrees. In 1975, the U.S. ranked third.

State indicators are presented in 25 tables across six categories: secondary education, higher education, workforce, financial R&D inputs, R&D outputs, and science and technology in the economy. R&D output is measured by S&E doctorates conferred, academic article output and academic patents. The measures for science and technology in the economy include high-tech employment, high-tech share of all business establishments, and venture capital as a percentage of gross state product.

In a companion piece to Indicators 2004, NSB observes in the available statistics an "emerging and critical problem" for the U.S. S&E labor force. A contributing factor, paradoxically, is the nation's economic success, which leads to an increasing demand for employees trained in S&E fields.

The looming problem lies in current trends that, if left unchecked, show the number of U.S. citizens qualified for S&E jobs will be level "at best," the NSB notes. At the same time, the nation may be unable to rely on foreign citizens to fill the gap, either because of limits to entry or because of intense foreign competition for those skills.

On the economic front, the U.S. and the G-7 nations continue to account for the lion's share of global R&D expenditures, according to Indicators 2004. The U.S. global high-tech market share held steady in the 1990s, and foreign-owned firms' R&D expenditures in the nation continue to exceed the amount U.S. firms spend overseas.

However, a number of countries are positioned to become more prominent in technology development because of their large, ongoing investments in S&E education and R&D. In the 1990s, China and South Korea increased their high-tech market shares enough that their combined share has surpassed that of Japan. And U.S. firms spend more R&D dollars in Asia than Asian firms spend in the U.S. Asia is the only global region where the U.S. shows such a deficit.

Among high-tech exports, the U.S. and Japanese global shares have declined, while the share from other Asian countries, led largely by China and South Korea, has climbed to nearly 30 percent. A growing number of journal articles from East Asia also suggests an increased presence in basic R&D.

For the first time ever, the report provides a state-by-state breakdown of 24 science and technology indicators. S&E Indicators is considered the nation's most authoritative source for national and international S&E trends in education, the labor force, academia and the global marketplace, as well as nationwide and statewide expenditures for R&D. This year's report is available at: http://www.nsf.gov/sbe/srs/seind04/