Recent Research: ASPI Report says U.S. cedes lead in critical technologies research

The Australian Strategic Policy Institute’s (ASPI) report, ASPI’s two-decade Critical
Technology Tracker: The rewards of long-term research investment, aims to identify
which countries and institutions are leading in high-impact research across 64 critical
technological domains, including defense, space, energy, environment, artificial
intelligence, biotechnology, robotics, cyber, computing, advanced materials, and
quantum technologies. The tracker's methodology involves analyzing the top 10% of
highly cited research publications in each critical technology. According to ASPI, this
approach emphasizes research that significantly influences the technological lifecycle
and is likely to lead to patents and breakthroughs. The dataset spans from 2003 to
2023, allowing for both short-term (five-year) and long-term (21-year) trend analyses. 

The report’s key finding is a change in global leadership. Data from the first five years
covered in the report (2003-2007) shows the U.S. led in 60 of the 64 technologies back
then. However, data from the last five years (2019-2023), shows China emerged as the
leader in 57 of these technologies, while the U.S. leads in just seven, marking a
significant upheaval in global research dominance (see Figure 1). India has emerged as
a significant player as well, ranking among the top five countries in 45 of the 64
technologies. 

Figure 1: Breakdown of nations leading the most critical technology areas, 2003-2007
and 2019-2023

The Australian authors warn that without a long-term, sustained government research
commitment, countries risk losing their competitive edge in critical technologies, which
are vital for economic prosperity, national security, and global influence. They suggest
that nations must prioritize high-impact research, foster international collaborations, and
develop policies that support innovation ecosystems to maintain and enhance their
positions in the global technological landscape.

The findings from the ASPI Critical Technology Tracker report directly reinforce the
themes discussed in SSTI’s recent TBED101 article, Distinguishing critical and
emerging technologies in policy, particularly with respect to how critical technologies are
identified, why they matter, and what strategic consequences arise from global
leadership in these fields. Their 64 tracked technologies include both established critical
technologies (e.g., satellite systems, precision navigation), and emerging technologies
(e.g., synthetic biology, quantum sensors) that are on a trajectory to become critical.
The report provides empirical evidence that global research leadership in these critical
technologies is rapidly shifting, and, according to the authors, this leadership may
translate into future control over military advantage, industrial competitiveness, and
innovation capacity. Therefore, they argue, the U.S. and allied policymakers should
make immediate and sustained strategic investments in critical technologies research,
manufacturing, and workforce development.