Recent Research: Does boomerang migration play a role in regional economic development?

Many metropolitan areas grapple with demographic shifts, labor shortages, and changing economic conditions, so understanding the factors that encourage former residents to return may help policymakers design more effective strategies for talent retention and regional revitalization. The Cleveland Fed's recent District Data Brief titled "Boomerang Migration: Which Regions Have the Most, and Can It Make a Difference?" examines the movement of individuals who return to their home regions after relocating elsewhere. 

A better understanding of this “boomerang migration” may have implications for regional economic development, workforce stability, and population growth. By analyzing migration patterns and the characteristics of areas with higher return rates, this research provides valuable insights that can inform economic policies, workforce development initiatives, and housing strategies. The study offers a data-driven perspective on how local governments and economic development organizations might leverage boomerang migration to strengthen their communities and sustain long-term growth.

The authors analyzed migration patterns using large-scale administrative and survey data. They used longitudinal data from sources such as the U.S. Census Bureau and Internal Revenue Service tax records to track individuals' movement across regions over time to see where people originally lived, where they moved, and whether they eventually returned. Those identified as boomerang migrants were individuals who moved away from a metropolitan area and later returned. The authors examined variations in return migration rates across different metropolitan areas, considering economic factors such as local job growth, cost of living, and housing affordability. They also compared high-cost and low-cost regions to understand how affordability influences return migration patterns. They used econometric models to assess the relationship between return migration rates and key regional characteristics. This approach included regression analysis to control for local economic conditions, demographic trends, and housing market conditions.

The study finds that boomerang migration accounts for a substantial share of regional population flows, with approximately 25% to 30% of individuals who leave a region eventually returning. While economic opportunities in the form of job growth influence return migration, they are not the dominant factor. Instead, the cost of living, particularly housing affordability, plays a more significant role. Regions with living costs more than 5% above the national average tend to have lower return migration rates, often below 30%. In contrast, lower-cost areas see a broader range of return rates, from 25% to 35%. This contrast suggests that while job availability may draw some former residents back, high costs can serve as a deterrent, limiting a region’s ability to regain its former population. 

The study highlights that return migration is influenced by both economic conditions and personal ties to a region, making it a complex but potentially impactful factor in regional demographic trends. As part of their economic development strategies, regions may consider targeted steps such as policies designed to increase the availability of affordable housing to encourage boomerang migration and retain current residents. Integrating return migration strategies with broader workforce retention and talent attraction initiatives may be a cost-effective strategy to replenish the workforce, support local economies, and strengthen community ties.

This article was prepared by SSTI using Federal funds under award ED22HDQ3070129 from the Economic Development Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce. The statements, findings, conclusions, and recommendations are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Economic Development Administration or the U.S. Department of Commerce.