Recent Research: Exploring the role of social mobility in the rise of populism

In a recently revised working paper from the Center for International Development at Harvard University, the contemporary rise of populism is explained in a new light, that of unfair economic outcomes, often in the form of low social mobility. In his paper Social Mobility Explains Populism, Not Inequality or Culture, Harvard Growth Lab’s Eric S. M. Protzer explores the close correlation between areas of low social mobility and those that have experienced a rise in populist thinking.

Noting that “the realities of populist movements are threatening long-standing democratic institutions and practices,” Protzer points to Hungary and Turkey as examples of countries that have descended into authoritarianism after electing populists early on. He suggests that populism be confronted to ward off similar trajectories in other nations, and that to do so its roots must be understood.  

While other hypotheses have focused on wealth inequality or cultural disparities as reasons behind the rise of populism, Protzer writes that neither are as geographically linked to the growth of populism as the lack of social mobility, and he presents empirical evidence to support the contention that unfair economic outcomes are linked to the rise of contemporary developed-world populism.

Protzer cautions that some of the most commonly-discussed policy prescriptions to defuse populism, such as aggressively redistributing income and wealth, may be misguided. Instead, he suggests that “policymakers face the complex problem of improving economic fairness and social mobility. Depending on the country this may plausibly necessitate greater investment in the public goods that create equal opportunity, like education, healthcare, and infrastructure; or market reforms that allow citizens to translate that opportunity to fair rewards.”

The full paper is available here.