US competitiveness sabers drawn for budget battle, election, future
Significant differences between the House and Senate versions of the FY 25 budget numbers for science and the quadrennial election cycle might explain the increased language one hears concerning national security, competitiveness and global economic conditions. Data presented in a July issue brief by the National Science Board (NSB), however, should help raise the issue to encourage honest discussion about how the federal government will take on the challenges to U.S. leadership in innovation. Additionally, a new paper from the Aspen Strategy Group et al. provides supporting arguments to the NSB facts and policy recommendations to help address educational aspects of what many in the innovation space consider a growing or looming crisis for the country.
In A Changed Science and Engineering Landscape, NSB documents the People's Republic of China (PRC) rise in prominence in science and engineering due to that nation's ample and sustained commitment to funding R&D, which is now "bearing fruit." They note that the PRC has surpassed the U.S. in the number of international patents, with a meteoric rise from only 10,000 international patents in 2009 to nearly 70,000 by 2023. In contrast, the U.S. level of patenting modulated between 50,000 and 60,000 during much of the period.
More importantly, NSB notes, are the sectors in which China is achieving those patents. China is advancing in areas that could threaten our national security, including artificial intelligence, semiconductors, quantum computing, and biotechnology.
“The PRC now patents more than the U.S., including in fields like AI,” the NSB authors note.
China and U.S. innovation activities are not happening in isolation. International collaboration, NSB points out, is resulting in nearly one in four U.S. science and engineering publications including Chinese co-authors. Co-authors from the United Kingdom on US S&E papers, for comparison, occurred only 14% of the time in 2022. NSB advises the U.S. needs to “lean into internationalism,” but recognizes there are nuances to be negotiated between collaboration and competition.
Returning the U.S. to dominance in patenting in critical emerging sectors requires investment in earlier stage R&D than are the priorities for the U.S. business community for them to stay competitive in current markets, NSB notes. That requires a step up in federal research appropriations, which have fallen to roughly $1 in science and engineering investment for every $3 spent by industries and companies, mostly for their current and future private product portfolios.
NSB also calls out an urgent need for significant "rebuilding" of STEM education "to build a robust STEM workforce." The board has to go back nearly seven decades to the National Defense Education Act of 1958 for a comparable federal commitment to what NSB believes is needed.
A larger STEM workforce through drastically improved STEM education are two aspects of the NSB report that resonate loudly in the new paper Fortifying America's Future: Pathways for Competitiveness. The paper argues that educating and preparing the science and technology workforce are the primary ways for the U.S. to ensure national security and that breaking down the silos in national security, industry, higher education, and K-12 education is critical to this process.
The authors provide recommendations for cultivating STEM talent on a national level, including a call for establishing and funding ARPA-ED. On the state level, they suggest a Technical Assistance Center to help states develop K-12 pathways and a Career Counseling Corps to help steer people on these pathways into high-demand STEM fields.
Is this all just political rhetoric raised during tough federal budget negotiations and a close election with clear alternatives for future federal innovation investments? Examples from the Aspen Strategy Group et al. paper suggest otherwise. For example, the Semiconductor Industry Association projects that 67,000 of the new jobs (58%) resulting from the CHIPS and Science Act may not be filled based on current U.S. degree completion rates. And 2.1 million jobs in manufacturing are projected to go unfilled by 2030 due to a lack of qualified talent.
nsf, s&e, stem, workforce, reports