GEORGIA 2006; State's midsection holds key to race for governor

BYLINE: JIM THARPE; Staff

Dublin --- Democratic gubernatorial nominee Mark Taylor, trailing in the polls and low on cash, has his eye on Middle Georgia communities like this city of about 16,000 halfway between Atlanta and Savannah.

Taylor's best chance, some political experts say, is to tap into the region's independent-minded voters and force Republican Gov. Sonny Perdue below the majority the governor needs to win in the Nov. 7 general election. That would throw the two into an unpredictable runoff.

But that could be easier said than done: This former Democratic stronghold in recent years increasingly has sided with Republicans, including Perdue and President Bush.

"Both campaigns see Middle Georgia as critical," said Merle Black, an Emory University political scientist. "Taylor can't win with just the votes from the cities and the Black Belt rural areas. He's got to take large parts of Middle and South Georgia and combine it with the large-city vote to beat Perdue."

Political experts predict the state's gubernatorial battleground will break down like this: Taylor will dominate the interior of Atlanta and the bigger cities, while Perdue will carry the vote-heavy suburbs and exurbs. Taylor should do well in the rural Black Belt counties in South Georgia, while Perdue is a heavy favorite in North Georgia.

The rural and small-town folks who populate Middle Georgia are more difficult to peg. They have supported both Perdue and Taylor in the past, as Dublin-area voters did in 2002.

"I vote for the man and not the party," said Dr. Paul Kellam, 43, a local physician, who has not decided who will get his nod. "This is an area of very independent people who come from farming or small-business backgrounds."

Wooing voters

Taylor will have a tougher time winning over voters like Ang Prosperi, who runs the Encore consignment shop on Jefferson Street and hosts a local television show called "Oconee Trading Post." Prosperi used to be a Democrat but now considers herself a Republican. She plans to vote for Perdue next month.

"I know he's a person whose values I can trust," she said. "He is Christian. He believes in the sanctity of life. He believes in American enterprise. He doesn't come across as a liberal-minded man in terms of our financial picture. He's not out for the big giveaway programs."

House Democratic Leader DuBose Porter hails from Dublin and runs the local newspaper. The longtime legislator predicted Perdue and Taylor will be running "neck-and-neck" by Election Day and that Middle Georgians will turn out in large numbers for Taylor.

"This is still a conservative Democratic area," Porter said. "People are fiscally conservative but they see that there's a place for government to provide some of the human needs. And that's a big difference with the Republican Party."

Perdue and Taylor travel to Middle Georgia tonight for their first debate of the campaign. The two will square off at the Georgia National Fairgrounds in Perry.

Middle Georgia, which accounts for about 18 percent of the statewide vote, is loosely defined as the agriculture-heavy midsection of the state, beginning near Macon and rambling south for more than two dozen counties. This is the land of former U.S. Sen. Sam Nunn of Perry and former House Speaker Terry Coleman of Eastman, both conservative Democrats. But it is also the home of Perdue, a Democrat-turned-Republican from Bonaire who many believe has a substantial advantage here over Taylor, who is from Albany in South Georgia.

Battling a political trend

Middle Georgia helped Perdue win the governor's office in 2002, the same year it also helped Taylor beat Republican challenger Steve Stancil.

In the 2002 election, Perdue beat former Gov. Roy Barnes in 19 of 28 Middle Georgia counties, receiving a total of 135,001 votes. Taylor took 21 of 28 counties with a total of 136,386 votes.

But that was four years ago. Recent polls suggest it will be difficult for Taylor to catch Perdue, who has a five-fold money advantage at this critical point in the race, where cash-burning television ads become the weapon of choice.

Perdue is barely over 50 percent in the polls --- Perdue 53 percent, Taylor 34 percent --- in a recent Mason-Dixon poll conducted for The Atlanta Journal-Constitution. The same poll showed Perdue leading Taylor in Middle Georgia, 54 to 36 percent, with about 9 percent undecided.

Still, Taylor's camp hopes he can hold the governor under 50 percent and force a runoff. The third candidate in the race, Libertarian Garrett Hayes, makes a runoff an outside possibility.

Political scientist Black said Democrats in Middle Georgia could be fighting more than just a candidate --- they are battling a political trend that began in the Atlanta suburbs and has migrated to the hinterlands. Conservative Democrats have increasingly moved over to the Republican Party, even in former Democratic strongholds like the middle of the state.

Matt Towery, who publishes the Internet political newsletter, InsiderAdvantage, said Middle Georgia could be a difference maker in the race.

"Middle Georgia may, in this particular race, matter a lot," Towery said. "Taylor has to be playing for a general election runoff. There is no other strategy in this race."

An eye on Middle Georgia

Both Perdue and Taylor have focused considerable attention on the area. Perdue's campaign spokesman said he has visited Middle Georgia more than a dozen times during the campaign, and Taylor's spokesman said Taylor has been in the area 14 times just since June 1.

Taylor has lobbed get-tough-on-crime proposals --- including one calling for the death penalty for repeat child molesters --- at rural conservatives in the region. The death penalty proposal, which angered some of Taylor's African-American supporters, was meant to peel away some of Perdue's support in rural and small-town Georgia.

Taylor's campaign will not discuss campaign strategy. Perdue's forces dismissed talk of a runoff and predicted they will prevail in Middle Georgia.

"Any time anybody starts talking about losing the first round to win the second round sounds like they're losing to me," said Perdue's campaign manager Nick Ayers.

Taylor said recently the area has "been crucial to every election I've been in" and predicted a strong showing this year.

"Jobs are an important issue down there [and] the school cuts have hurt their schools," Taylor said. "I believe I can win on those issues in Middle Georgia."

Porter said about 7,000 jobs have been lost within 40 miles of Dublin over the last decade or so and blamed Perdue for failing to turn things around. He accused the Republican-controlled state Legislature and the Perdue administration of concentrating on the welfare of the Atlanta suburbs at the expense of small-town Georgia.

"The priorities of this administration have been disastrous for areas like us in Middle Georgia, whether it's in economic development, health care, job training, education --- all of those things that people here need their government for," Porter said.

Dublin Mayor Phil Best disagrees, and plans to vote for Perdue on Nov. 7.

"I think we'll overwhelmingly go for Gov. Perdue," said Best, who describes himself as a political independent. "He has been good to us. I think he tries as much as possible to overlook politics and do what is right."

Perdue showed up in Dublin recently for some old-school politicking at the local fairgrounds. About 300 people paid $10 apiece to dine on fried catfish, slaw and hush puppies with the man they help send to the Governor's Mansion in an upset victory four years ago. The governor lingered for more than an hour --- he shook every hand in sight, posed for photos, signed autographs and kissed a few babies. Then he hopped on stage, microphone in hand.

"Y'all just keep on showing up," he told the crowd. "It's inspiring to me."