Gregoire's progress measured by numbers
BYLINE: Brad Shannon, The Olympian, Olympia, Wash.
Nov. 12--By most measures, things are going Gov. Chris Gregoire's way right now.
Two years after the disputed election that put the Democrat into office by 133 votes, a state budget deficit has boomeranged into a glinting surplus of more than $1.7 billion.
The Democratic Party firmly grips power in the Legislature with almost two-thirds of the seats in the state House and Senate after Tuesday's watershed election.
And two polls show rising numbers of Washington residents now favor Gregoire's leadership.
That marks a sharp reversal from Gregoire's approval ratings, which hovered in the low- to mid-30 percent range in early 2005 at a time when Republican candidate Dino Rossi was mounting a court challenge to the election.
"I believe we've had two very good years in state government where the House, Senate and governor have worked together, where we've had some bipartisan policy breakthroughs and some fairly bold movement on transportation policy," said Senate Majority Leader Lisa Brown, D-Spokane, a fan of Gregoire's. "I think people are fairly happy with the direction. That is going to reflect in the governor's popularity and our ability to pick up seats in the Legislature."
The governor has a 32-17 Democratic majority in the Senate and a House majority of somewhere around 62 or 63 Democrats vs. 35 or 36 Republicans. And her positions on three citizen initiatives that passed or failed in Tuesday's balloting exactly matched what voters decided to do on the issues -- including retaining the estate tax to fund education, rejecting land- use rollbacks and approving new goals for using alternative energy.
"I think it indicates she is kind of in synch with where the public is in this state in 2006," said Lance LeLoup, political science professor at Washington State University, who called it a "big turnaround" since the disputed 2004 election.
"Really, the further you get away from the election and the recounts the stronger she's grown. The record the first two years has been pretty good by any measure," LeLoup said.
Progress reports this week
Gregoire declined to say last week how she plans to spend the new political capital at her disposal. But it's clear she is in the driver's seat after the election -- even if one Republican poll still paints Rossi as more popular than she is among voters.
But the governor will tip her hand soon. Her Washington Learns task force on education rolls out its recommendations on Monday; the blue-ribbon task force on health care, which Gregoire leads, starts shaping recommendations for more affordable health insurance as soon as Tuesday; and the state's revenue forecast update is due Thursday morning.
Gregoire's budget director, Victor Moore, said the state has more than $1.7 billion in reserves, which is enough to cover state employees' raises and other carry-forward costs of government -- with some left over for initiatives, or what the Gregoire administration calls "targeted investments."
It's likely those new investments will be in areas such as college enrollment, early childhood education, class-size reductions, and programs that reflect the priorities Gregoire heard on her summer-long "listening tour" of the state. Gregoire said she consistently heard people say the state must address "health care, education and economic development."
Those are exactly the priorities outlined by House Speaker Frank Chopp and Senate leader Brown, although the lawmakers also list alternative energy, and Chopp mentioned transportation accountability.
The governor, Brown and House leaders also have said they want to offer a constitutional amendment to make it easier for voters to approve school levies by 50 percent majority votes. But overall, Brown said, the outlook is for a somewhat boring agenda.
"It's more of the same. More education and infrastructure investments, more economic development tools for the whole state," Brown said.
History is dictating some of the Democrats' caution. A Democratic sweep in 1992 combined with an ambitious liberal governor, Mike Lowry, led to overreaching on taxes and health care that quickly won public rejection. Within two years, the Democrats were swept out of office, something the Democrats this time are intending to avoid.
Gregoire wouldn't say what direction she wants to go with her push to make health care more available, but she thinks some bipartisan ideas will emerge from her task force.
"We're fixated on what's the problems and what's a way in which we can solve the problem. So the dialogue is changed," Gregoire said.
If any success comes about, it would mirror Gregoire's past successes in bringing warring parties together in compromise. She found consensus for a gasoline-tax package in 2005, a package of legislation that touch on some medical-malpractice problems this year and a breakthrough water-use agreement for the Columbia River Basin, also this year.
Those successes are adding to Gregoire's popularity.
One recent poll by a University of Washington research center pegged her approval rating at 66 percent -- including 28 percent of Washington residents who strongly approved of her and 38 percent who somewhat approved. That Washington Poll included a sample of 700 registered voters and had an error margin of 3.7 percentage points.
That poll mirrors findings by Rasmussen Reports, an independent polling firm, which pegged Gregoire's favorable rating at 55 percent last month. But that is much different from a Republican-oriented Strategic Vision poll from Atlanta, which found Gregoire's unfavorable rating was higher at 47 percent than her 44 percent favorable rating.
Strategic Vision also found Rossi would beat Gregoire in a hypothetical matchup -- 50 percent to 45 percent.
Even with the political wind at her back, the governor said she intends to include Republicans in discussions, and she noted that her party's gain of seats in the Legislature was helped by "what's going on at the nation's capital" in the sweep against President Bush, the GOP and the Iraq war. Washington's state government provided a contrast.
"It's such a dramatic contrast. We are working in a bipartisan way. We are taking on problems," she said.
Some Republicans say Gregoire has consulted on select issues, but they are waiting to see if she really does reach out in 2007.
"Why should she?" asked Glenn Anderson, a Fall City Republican who expressed frustration last week that the Washington Learns group won't print and distribute his dissenting report on how to pay for K-12 education. Anderson wants the state to pay for K-12 schools first, then consider what's left for other programs.
"She's got a constitutional majority in both the House and Senate," Anderson said.
He predicted that, "if there are issues that have long-term value to the state, and we need to put an end to the debate, then we (Republicans) play a role. If it's just about perpetuating business as usual, then it's just between interest groups and her party."
House Republican Leader Richard DeBolt of Chehalis gives the governor credit.
"I think there was some issues she took on that she didn't have to take on. She worked to find solutions. So I think she did some positive things. "I do know she brought our caucus in to work on water and to work on tort reform and health care issues. We had a voice in that process, and we respect her for that," DeBolt said.
But, he said, dwindling Republican minorities in the House and Senate could change that.
"I will tell you the governor has reached out, more than the House Democratic Caucus. But does she still have to do that? "That remains to be seen," DeBolt said.
Brad Shannon is political editor for The Olympian. He can be reached at 360-753-1688 or bshannon@theolympian.com.
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