No Money, No Mars: U.S. Manned Space-Flight Program Found Unsustainable

The U.S. will not be able to achieve its goals for human space flight unless substantial changes are made to NASA's plans for the next decade, according to a report from the U.S. Human Space Flight Plans Committee. The report's conclusions and recommendations, if they are adopted by the Obama Administration, would have significant impacts on those state and local TBED initiatives focused on NASA installations, space science, and the aerospace industry.

The committee finds the FY2010 budget for NASA does not provide sufficient support to maintain a viable space exploration program. If the space shuttle program ends next year, as scheduled, the U.S. will lack the ability to launch astronauts into space for at least seven years. This seven-year gap would include the entire scheduled five-year operational period of the International Space Station (ISS). The report concludes that the U.S. should adjust its timing for the decommission of the shuttle program and ISS, draw on global and private resources for continuing human space flight and re-examine its goals in space.

The report was commissioned by NASA at the request of the Office of Science and Technology Policy in January to review the status and outlook of the human space flight program. In January 2004, President George W. Bush unveiled a long-term plan for the U.S. to return to the moon by 2020 and establish a permanent lunar base that would serve as a stepping-stone for a future Mars mission.

Since that time, the extended suspension of flights following the 2003 Space Shuttle Columbia disaster and the reduced pace of flights in the ensuing years has slowed NASA's progress toward achieving those goals. It now appears that NASA will not be able to complete its current manifest of shuttle flights before the end of the shuttle program. The end of the shuttle program next year also means that the U.S. will have no means to access the ISS when it becomes fully operational in 2011.

Delays and budgetary constraints also have slowed the progress of the U.S. Constellation Program, which was intended to become the focus of human space flight operations after shuttle flights had ended. The Constellation-affiliated Ares I and Orion vehicles were scheduled to begin support of the ISS in 2012. It now appears that these vehicles will not be ready before 2015, and additional delays are likely. Since the ISS is scheduled to be decommissioned in 2016, the Constellation Program will not be able to support the station. Progress has also stalled on Constellation's lunar and heavy-lift vehicles, so the U.S. is unlikely to make timely progress on its goal of creating a lunar base.

What can be done to salvage the prospects of U.S. space flight program? The report provides five different scenarios, with a few sub-options, for the next decade. The first scenario uses the program of record, but with funds to support shuttle flights in 2011 and to decommission the ISS in 2016. The second option calls for extending the life of the ISS through 2020 and beginning a lunar exploration program under the Constellation program. Even this option, however, does not allow the U.S. to return to the moon before the late 2020's. Though even this option requires additional funding, the commission dismisses it as incompatible with the U.S. stated goal of returning to the moon in the next 20 years. Both of these options are dismissed as being incompatible with a meaningful U.S. space exploration program.

The remaining options all require that the U.S. increase its budget for human space flight to $3 billion above the FY2010 guidance by FY2014 and then increase that funding at 2.4 percent a year to keep pace with inflation. With this additional funding, the U.S. would have more flexibility to re-examine its plans for the ISS, moon exploration and an eventual Mars mission. The report breaks down these goals into several options that each preserve the country's goal of returning to lunar and space exploration outside of a low-Earth orbit.

Whether or not new funding becomes available, the commission recommends that NASA re-position itself to better serve its mission in a changing environment. First, international cooperation must become a priority. Without the ability to transport astronauts to the ISS on its own, the U.S. would have to rely on foreign space programs for assistance. Other significant benefits could also come from international partnerships, including cooperative development of space technologies. Second, the U.S. should leverage the emerging commercial space industry. By partnering with private companies, NASA could spur innovation in the private sector and create opportunities to lower the cost of space flight and logistics. Finally, the commission recommends that NASA reclaim its position as an innovator in its own right. By focusing on developing cutting-edge space technologies, NASA could help foster a robust commercial space industry, and open up new options for the future of space exploration.

The full report from the U.S. Human Space Flight Plans Committee is still being prepared. Read a summary of the report at: http://www.nasa.gov/offices/hsf/related_documents/summary_report.html