Yergin: Renewables Moving Toward Competitive Role in Energy Markets; Real Impact Expected within Next Five to 10 Years as "Great Bubbling" Continues
DATELINE: CAMBRIDGE, Mass.
"Renewable energy is crossing the divide towards a competitive role in energy markets," Daniel Yergin, chairman of Cambridge Energy Research Associates (CERA) and executive vice president of IHS Inc., said today in Washington, D.C. "But there is still more terrain to cover among the different renewable energy sources in terms of economics, technology and scale."
Yergin spoke today at the Washington International Renewable Energy Conference (WIREC). Hosted by the United States government, the conference is bringing together more than 5,000 people, including cabinet-level officials from more than 70 countries, along with civil society and private sector leaders to discuss the opportunities and challenges of a global, rapid deployment of renewable energy.
"Renewables are already a significant business in terms of tens of billions of dollars in investment per year," he continued. "But the scale of the existing energy business is enormous, and we'll only start to see the real impact in terms of market share in the next five to 10 years.
"High energy prices, climate change and energy security are converging as the new engine driving the development of clean energy," Yergin said. "They are being bolstered by public policy and a major shift in public opinion. All of this is supported by the growing conviction that new carbon policies will reshape the competitive landscape of the global energy business.
"We are going through a period of what I call the 'great bubbling,' a high degree of innovation all across the energy spectrum," he said. "This is boosting the competitiveness of renewables and efficiency, and is also evident in terms of conventional energy."
Citing CERA's new study, Crossing the Divide: the Future of Clean Energy, Yergin said that, under CERA's "Launch Pad" scenario, renewable power could be supplying as much as 16 percent of the world's electric needs by 2030. Under the "Global Fissures" scenario, the number is much lower - meeting seven percent of global electric needs. "This provides a current view of the upper and lower ranges for renewables' impact on electric power," Yergin said.
CERA's analysis in Crossing the Divide uses a scenarios framework to assess the prospects among the various clean energy technologies and helps define key risks and opportunities as companies seek to place their technology bets. The analysis addresses new and conventional energy technologies that can provide energy with a minimal carbon footprint and facilitate greater energy security. These technologies include biofuels, renewable power technologies, carbon capture and storage, nuclear and hydropower.
According to the study, clean energy investment - which includes renewables, as well as nuclear and hydro - could reach a cumulative total of $7 trillion by 2030.
"There is a broad range of opportunities and benefits, as well as risks and pitfalls, as the modern energy industry increasingly moves to adopt clean technologies that will be part of the alternative, low-carbon pathway to the energy future," Yergin told the WIREC audience. "This changing energy future will be shaped both by traditional technology and engineering firms, electric power companies, and oil and gas companies and by such new entrants such as innovators, entrepreneurs, venture capital firms and high tech companies.
"Governments around the world - prompted by dual concerns about energy security and climate change - will also play a significant role," he added. "As governments move forward to further encourage renewables development, they do need to pay attention to key considerations - about costs, scale, reliability, timing and unintended consequences. Another key issue is the additional investment needed to support and tie renewables into existing energy systems."
On current oil prices, Yergin added, "A major reason for the recent leap to $100 a barrel is the economy - but now a weak U.S. economy and the credit crunch, rather than the strong global economy that has been so important the last few years. A slowing U.S. economy, rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and expectations of more, and a weak U.S. dollar - along with the reappearance of inflation around the world - are driving investors into oil and other commodities. Instead of the traditional 'flight to the dollar' during times of uncertainty, we are seeing a 'flight to oil.' At the same time, rising costs in the oil field have put a higher floor under oil prices."
He cited several key insights from the Crossing the Divide study:
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Renewable power technologies are poised for substantial growth - Wind will make the largest gains, followed by solar power and biomass - despite near-term bottlenecks in wind turbine manufacturing, supply shortages in silicon and competitive pressures from escalating component costs.
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Government policy remains a key driver for clean energy advancement - Putting a price on CO2 emissions, setting mandates and providing subsidies all work to kick-start clean energy technologies by meeting the economic competitiveness and cost advantages of conventional technologies. The challenge in the years ahead is to provide subsidies in a way that ensures that these technologies get off the drawing board and are able to wean themselves from support - allowing for a phase-out rather than an increase in subsidies - as they become commercially viable on their own. It is also important that mandates be set at achievable levels and with care so as not to create unexpected pressures from higher prices.
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Clean energy portfolio - A full range of clean energy technologies along with demand side responses will be needed to address the challenge of redirecting global greenhouse gas emissions trends. While many clean energy technologies are commercially available, more work is needed to develop and demonstrate a broader set of technologies including advanced coal systems.
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Conventional emission-free technologies - Nuclear and hydroelectric generation will account for almost half the gross clean power additions by 2030. The coal resource base and utilization in the United States and China will create a powerful drive to develop "clean coal" technologies.
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Asia demand and manufacturing - Rapid economic growth may push Asian energy needs from 30 percent of current global demand to 40 percent by 2030; combined with its manufacturing cost-competitiveness, this could make Asia a nexus for clean energy technology research, development and equipment production.
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The Economy - Economic growth affects energy demand and carbon emissions as well as the political and financial support for research and development of new clean energy technologies.
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The Big Three - "The Big Three" in terms of energy consumption - the United States, the European Union and China - will have a major impact on development of "clean energy," along with certain other countries, particularly Japan, India and Brazil.
About CERA
Cambridge Energy Research Associates (CERA), an IHS company (NYSE: IHS), is a leading advisor to energy companies, consumers, financial institutions, technology providers, and governments. CERA (www.cera.com) delivers strategic knowledge and independent analysis on energy markets, geopolitics, industry trends, and strategy. CERA is based in Cambridge, Massachusetts, and has offices in Bangkok; Beijing; Calgary; Dubai; Johannesburg; Mexico City; Moscow; Mumbai; Oslo; Paris; Rio de Janeiro; San Francisco; Tokyo; and Washington, DC.
For information about Crossing the Divide, contact Michael Banville at mbanville@cera.com
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