Orlando job market to fare better than state, nation

BYLINE: Chris Kauffmann

ORLANDO -- Paraphrasing former President Bill Clinton, Sean Snaith says, "it's the people, stupid."

With the national and state economies expected to get weaker in 2007, the director of the University of the Central Florida's Institute for Economic Competitiveness says the ongoing population influx into the Orlando area will continue to propel job growth, albeit at a slightly slower rate than before.

"People are a key driver (to employment growth) as population growth feeds upon itself," Snaith says, reflecting on the results of a new 2006-2009 forecast produced by the institute. "Florida will be above the national average, and Orlando will be above Florida."

The forecast predicts that overall employment will grow by 3.2 percent in Orlando in 2007, down from 4 percent in 2006 and 6.1 percent in 2005. However, Orlando's rate will be considerably above the 1.8 percent growth rate projected for the state in 2007 as well as the 1.1 percent growth rate forecast for the country.

Orlando's employment growth rate, which, along with the Naples area, is expected to be the highest in Florida, takes into consideration a dramatic residential construction fall-off that will severely stunt job growth in that sector. It is expected to grow at 0.5 percent in 2007, compared with 8.7 percent in 2006.

"What Orlando is losing in residential construction will be absorbed into civil and commercial construction," Snaith says.

However, the diversity of the local economy is expected to spur significant 2007 job growth in professional and business services (5.9 percent), education and health services (4.5 percent) and leisure and hospitality (3.3 percent).

"The results of this report validate what we are seeing and feeling in the metro Orlando economy," Ray Gilley, president and chief executive officer of the Metro Orlando Economic Development Commission, says in a statement. "From an economic development perspective, our goal is to help fill those new office towers and industrial parks in preparation for the next cycle of building."

Palm City economist William Fruth, who has studied the Orlando region extensively, says it is the region's economic diversity that will really help it weather the coming downturn.

Although Orlando suffers from some residential overbuilding, "Orlando's economy should continue to grow and I don't expect any significant slowdown," Fruth says.

The first half of 2007 will produce the greatest weakness with the economy expected to start rebounding in the second half of the year, Snaith says, adding things should really begin picking up in 2008 and 2009.

Almost all job sectors are still projected to grow at least somewhat during the next two years with the exception of manufacturing, which mirrors national problems in that industry.

Bill Weir, president of Accord Industries in Winter Park and president of the Manufacturers Association of Central Florida, says he believes that once the planned Burnham Institute for Medical Research gets up and running, it will help lure manufacturing jobs.

Meanwhile, personal income, including wages and investments, is projected to grow at 7 percent in 2007, 7.3 percent in 2008 and 7.8 percent in 2009. It grew at 6.8 percent in 2006.