manufacturing

This article, written by Leonardo Vasquez and reproduced from the April 2024 issue of NBER Digest, is a summary of NBER Working Paper 31948, prepared by Luisa Gagliardi, Enrico Moretti, and Michael Seranfelli.

The Office of Advanced Manufacturing at the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST), an agency of the U.S. Department of Commerce, intends to announce an open competition for a new Manufacturing USA institute. The expected competition, according to the notice of intent (NOI), will seek to establish a Manufacturing USA institute “focused on the use of artificial intelligence to improve resilience of U.S. manufacturing.”

The White House announced on February 9 that the administration expects to invest over $5 billion in semiconductor-related research, development, and workforce needs. The $5 billion will flow through the National Semiconductor Technology Center (NSTC), a public-private entity created to handle the funds. Friday’s announcement established the NSTC as a public-private consortium of the Secretaries of Commerce, Defense, and Energy, the Director of the National Science Foundation, and Natcast. Natcast will operate the NSTC consortium.

The United States has one of the most diversified economies of any nation, yet also the most dynamic; over the past five years, from 2018 through 2022, the U.S.’ agriculture, forestry, fishing, and hunting industry has grown 53%, while other industries such as manufacturing and construction have grown at a slower pace—17% and 23% respectively—compared to a 25% increase in overall gross domestic product.

Activity to build the U.S. semiconductor industry picked up steam on Monday, December 11. On that day, New York State, Gov. Kathy Hochul announced the state was committing $1 billion to what her office described as “a $10 billion partnership with leaders from the semiconductor industry such as IBM, Micron, Applied Materials, Tokyo Electron, and others to establish a next-generation semiconductor research and development center at NY CREATES’ Albany NanoTech Complex.” Also on that day, the U.S. Department of Commerce announced the U.S. Department of Commerce and BAE Systems Electronic Systems, a business unit of BAE Systems, Inc., have signed a non-binding preliminary memorandum of terms (PMT) to provide approximately $35 million in federal incentives under the CHIPS and Science Act to support the modernization of the company’s Microelectronics Center in Nashua, New Hampshire.

Despite a $4.1 trillion increase in annual output since 1987, manufacturing industries in the United States have been declining in both their labor productivity and share of output. The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ labor productivity (output per hour) index, tied to 2012 values, for manufacturing industries has dropped by nearly five points since its all-time high of over 101 in Q2 2013.

Manufacturing in the U.S. accounts for 90% of private-sector R&D, employs 80% of the nation’s engineers, and contributes trillions to the economy—according to Deloitte—with every dollar spent in manufacturing leading to an additional $1.81 added to the economy. However, despite its key importance, the U.S. lags behind much of the world in its proportion of manufacturing value added—the difference between the price of a product or service and any associated production costs—to the economy, seeing less value added each year as a percentage of GDP.

The CHIPS and Science Act (Act) established guardrails to prevent funding recipients from using the money to support the development of semiconductor manufacturing and technology in foreign countries of concern, including North Korea, China, Russia, and Iran. On September 25, 2023, the CHIPS Program Office CPO published the final rules for preventing improper use of CHIPS Act funding. The guardrails in the legislation include the Expansion Clawback and the Technology Clawback. The Expansion Clawback restricts recipients from using CHIPS funding for material expansion of manufacturing capacity in a foreign country of concern; the Technology Clawback limits recipients from engaging in joint research or technology licensing with a foreign entity of concern.

The 2021 BERD dataset reveals the highest level of business R&D spending on record. Since 2015, R&D expenditures have increased by 69% from $356 to $602 billion, representing an average annual growth of $41 billion or 9%. But what industries are contributing the most to this trend? The growth of business R&D in nonmanufacturing industries has far outpaced that of manufacturing industries since 2016, with an average growth of 15% per annum, compared to 6% for manufacturing industries. Nonmanufacturing R&D expenditures have been driven by massive increases in the information sector, among other industries, while chemicals—specifically pharmaceuticals and medicines—have led manufacturing. While nonmanufacturing industries have higher growth rates in their R&D expenditures, they still lag behind manufacturing industries in actual expenditures, but the gap is rapidly closing.

Those who gather data know that the results collected in 2020 during pandemic shutdowns do not reveal actual trends. This phenomenon was the case for a recent survey by Babson College researchers for the Global Entrepreneurship Monitor Adult Population Survey (GEM APS). They found that rates of entrepreneurship, which had been on the rise since 2015, dropped in 2020. However, their newest research shows an upward trend in 2021 and 2022, when the U.S. had the highest levels of entrepreneurial activity since their first survey in 1999. In 2022, 19% of working-age adults were in the process of running a business or were running a company less than 42 months old.