Long-time readers may recall the SSTI Weekly Digest included the above-titled article in its May 30, 2005, edition, two decades ago, titled "China's Goal: Quadruple 2000 GDP by 2020." China made it by the way, growing 428 percent from 2000 to 2020, measured with purchasing power parity (PPP) in constant 2021 international dollars. The United States, for comparison, grew only 44 percent in the same period and has trailed China in GDP PPP on the international scale ever since sometime in 2021. As the chart using Word Bank data shows below, China has never looked back.
Nature reported Nov. 6, 2025, that the world’s largest country set a new goal for itself in its latest five-year plan that, if reached in the same manner as that 2005 GDP goal, would further threaten U.S. perceptions—and ambitions—of persisting to lead the world’s economy. Xiaoying You reports in Nature that the Chinese government says it “aims to achieve greater self-reliance in science and technology and develop innovation-driven industries and ‘key core technologies.’” Not in 20 years like with GDP, but by 2030.
While the plan has not been publicly released yet, China’s targeted industries are reported to be those U.S. analysts also consider among the most critical for future global economic competitiveness: artificial intelligence, semiconductor manufacturing, basic research, and clean energy technologies
Self-reliance in leading industries and for innovation capacity overall requires the investment China appears ready to make, but it also requires capturing greater market share of products using those technologies. How will that impact the U.S. position in the global economy–or will our multinational companies simply shift more of their overall activity, including R&D investment, into those growing opportunities?
On Nov. 17, 2025, the Information Technology and Innovation Foundation published a report making this case very clearly. As ITIF president and CEO Rob Atkinson wrote: “When China captures market share, it is at America and the West’s expense—and losing market share usually leads to downward spirals in innovation and investment, or even irrevocable loss due to high reentry barriers.”
Meanwhile, the United States government, once the world’s largest public spender on R&D, is confronting continued Congressional budget paralysis and Administration spending requests looking at deep cuts in federal R&D.
Threats to financial commitments to future competitiveness also are being discussed within state legislatures and governors’ offices—states have been critical partners in supporting the nation’s localized research enterprise, innovation capacity, and talent development. Is that threatened, too?
Holiday Food for Thought
In the coming months, we will hear a lot from the large group of gubernatorial candidates in the 2026 election campaigns across three dozen states. Will those candidates—across the political spectrum—be talking about their states’ roles in fighting this growing crisis of competitiveness? Will the nation’s state and regional innovation community be demanding they do so? Become an SSTI sustaining member or organizational sponsor to help ensure that happens.