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End of Large Current Account Deficits, 1970-2002: Are There Lessons for the United States?
The author analyzes the international evidence on current account reversals using both non-parametric techniques as well as panel regressions. The results from this empirical investigation indicate that major current account reversals have tended to result in large declines in GDP growth.
Link
http://www.nber.org/papers/W11669