ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT MINISTRY WORKED OUT A NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT PLAN TO 2020

As the presidential election approaches, Russian politicians are attempting to peer further into the future. The Economic Development Ministry has prepared a long-range national socioeconomic development concept to 2020 and submitted it to President Vladimir Putin. There are political reasons behind this fashion for the long-term view: the boundaries of rational decision-making are becoming clearer. There are also economic reasons, and the main one sounds like this: "In the middle of the present decade, the Russian economy faced a long-term systemic challenge."

What is a long-term systemic challenge? Essentially, it is a revolutionary situation with regard to the economy. The Economic Development Ministry sees it as being based on "a combination of three fundamental factors." First: "increasingly intense global competition." The concept paper links this process to changes in the balance of power between the centers of the global economy. Overall, however, increasing competition is a permanent state of affairs in the global market. Second factor: "the growing role of human resources." That is nothing new either. Third: "the sources for development based on raw materials exports are running out."

Since economic policy needs some fairly resolute updates, the Economic Development Ministry is outlining some goals to be reached by 2020. They are quite ambitious: per capita GDP at $20,000-30,000 a year by 2020. In 2006, according to Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin, that indicator was $14,000 in Russia, compared to $38,000 in the United States - which makes the Economic Development Ministry's targets seems somewhat less attractive. Another goal: "ensuring Russia's leadership in science and technology in fields that provide it with competitive advantages and national security." Last goal: "Ensuring that within the global economy, Russia specializes in cutting-edge scientific research and high technology. Russia should hold significant market share, at least 10%, in high-tech goods and services - across at least four to six types of goods."

Some may find these goals inspiring, others may find them disappointing, but they have one thing in common: "a transition from economic growth based on raw materials exports to innovation-based development."

The Economic Development Ministry's description of high-tech products is fairly straightforward: aircraft-building, ship-building, electronics, nuclear power, and IT and communications.

So those are the prospects. All we have to do now is see who gets to implement this program. Cabinet Staff sources maintain that no Cabinet ministers will be dismissed until a new president takes office.

Source: Izvestia, June 05, 2007