External Contradictions of the Chinese Development Model: Why China Must Abandon Export-led Growth or Risk a Global Economic Contraction

This paper offers an alternative interpretation of China’s development model. Like the conventional story described above, it too argues that the current model is unsustainable. However, it is not the “domestic” consequences of over-investment and excessive growth that are the reasons. Instead, the reason is China’s “external” impact on the global economy, which threatens to trigger a world recession that will rebound and embrace China.