Tuition-free community college programs have expanded steadily across the country over the past decade. A recent NBER working paper examines one of the earliest examples of a statewide program, asking not just whether free tuition increases enrollment, but also whether it helps more students complete their degrees.
Tennessee Promise began as a privately funded pilot program serving a single county in 2009. In 2015, it expanded statewide and is now funded through the state’s lottery reserves. The program aims to cover the gap between a student’s existing federal and state grant aid and the full cost of tuition and fees at the state’s community and technical colleges, typically around $1000 per year. The program is open to any recent high school graduate (public, private, or homeschooled) with no income or academic requirements. As part of their application, students must submit a FAFSA and complete a community service requirement. After acceptance into the Tennessee Promise program, recipients must maintain a 2.0 GPA.
Drawing on national postsecondary enrollment data and the Census Bureau’s American Community Survey (ACS), the study examines how Tennessee Promise shows up in population-level outcomes across the state since 2009. Estimated across all eligible graduating classes, access to the program was associated with a 5.4 percentage point increase in college enrollment among 18-19-year-olds and about a 3-percentage point increase in associate’s degree attainment among 21-year-olds. The authors also found no significant change in bachelor's degree attainment. However, their findings do suggest that four-year institutions saw an 8-9% increase in transfer-in students, addressing a common concern that tuition aid programs focused on two-year colleges may discourage students from pursuing four-year degrees.
Less conclusive were the authors’ findings related to income and earnings. The study found that early-career wages and salary income increased by 6-8% among eligible graduates, although the authors note these results are difficult to interpret with confidence given broader trends in Tennessee’s labor market during the same period.