After rough year one, Spitzer - and voters - look to year two

ALBANY - His poll numbers are at historic lows for a first-year governor. He has alienated Democrats and Republicans alike with his hard-nosed approach, and compromise with the state Legislature has ground to a halt.

So the pressing question for the state is this: Can Gov. Eliot Spitzer turn things around in year two of his administration?

For leaders to have to ask that question is remarkable in itself, because Spitzer came into office a year ago with such high expectations and a record election victory in November 2006.

When Spitzer gives his State of the State address on Jan. 9 in Albany, then a follow-up address Jan. 14 in Buffalo on the upstate economy, his administration sees it as an opportunity to return the debate to policy issues on job growth, education and health care.

While some legislators remain skeptical that Spitzer can change his style, the Democratic governor said in a recent interview that he has learned valuable lessons from the first year and vowed to have a more "mature" relationship with the Legislature.

He said he would not relent on his agenda, however, and pointed out what he considers the successes of year one: middle-class property tax relief, budget reform, health-care reform, increases in education aid and targeted economic development in upstate.

"I think we got an awful lot done this year," Spitzer said. "And I hope we get as much done next year. I hope we get it done in a slightly more peaceable manner."

But will it be a "kinder, gentler" Spitzer as a recent poll suggested voters' desire?

"I hope so. You learn," the governor said, but he was quick to add that "doesn't mean there won't be moments of disagreements."

Aides pointed to other governors - such as Al Smith and Thomas Dewey - who had difficult first years and then prospered.

"Successful governors find a way to get the right tactics to meld with their long-term strategies," said Bruce Gyory, a senior adviser. And the governors who have had the greatest success have gotten stronger as they continue to govern."

To be successful in year two will be a challenge for Spitzer, though. The obstacles that he created in year one are sure to impact his ability for progress in year two, and legislators will be jockeying for position in a critical election year, some leaders said.

All 212 legislative seats will be on the ballot in November, and Republicans hold a slim two-seat majority in the Senate.

Early in his first year, Spitzer fought with the Democratic-controlled Assembly over its pick of colleague Thomas Dinapoli for state comptroller and battled health-care groups over cuts in spending.

Then a report in July by Attorney General Andrew Cuomo found Spitzer aides were conspiring to compile travel records on Senate Majority Leader Joseph Bruno to show he was illegally using state aircraft for political purposes.

The so-called Troopergate scandal continues to persist. After finding no criminal wrongdoing in his own probe, Albany County District Attorney David Soares recently subpoenaed records from Spitzer's office after reopening his investigation.

Spitzer vows to testify before the state Public Integrity Commission over what he knew of the scandal, but has yet to do so.

Meanwhile, his proposal in September to offer driver's licenses to illegal immigrants dropped his popularity even more.

He ultimately dumped the plan, yet the damage to his standing was already done. A poll by Siena College this month found that the governor's job-approval rating dipped to 27 percent, the lowest since he's been in office and perhaps the lowest of any governor in their first year.

Some analysts said Spitzer, a former state attorney general, tried to run over the Legislature and found out that won't work.

"He was using a model that may have worked better as an attorney general than a governor," said Marist College pollster Lee Miringoff.

"Where as a prosecutor you draw a line in the sand and sort of try to pin down your opponent, as governor you have to negotiate and build allies," he said.

Senate Majority Leader Joseph Bruno, R-Brunswick, Rensselaer County, said the ball was in Spitzer's court to regain the trust of the Legislature.

"He came in with the wrong attitude that he's going to be 'it,' " Bruno said. "He said repeatedly that he's not going to need the Legislature. If he carries that attitude into this coming year, that's going to be a huge disservice to the people of this state."

Some officials said they hold out hope the vitriol will subside. If Republicans want to retain control of the Senate, they will need to show positive results to voters, said Assemblywoman Amy Paulin, D-Scarsdale, Westchester County.

Senate Minority Leader Malcolm Smith, D-Queens, recognized that the next legislative session would be difficult. Yet he said he's confident Spitzer can overcome it.

"A lot of one's ability to get results in the Legislature is having the will," Smith said. "And while the governor has done some things that he wishes he's done differently and we all agree, he's clearly shown that he has the will to about-face and redirect his energies."

Still, Spitzer won't enjoy the political capital he had when he took office, when he vowed to clean up the dysfunction in Albany.

Also, the state faces a $4.3 billion budget gap in fiscal 2008-09. That means record spending on education in his first year may need to be curbed and the potential for more cuts to health care. Last year, Spitzer battled special-interest groups over a proposed $1.3 billion in cuts to health care.

Spitzer will unveil his 2008-09 budget proposal on Jan. 23. Then the Legislature needs to approve it by April 1.

Some groups said the Spitzer administration has been more open about the challenges in 2008 - a change from when he first took office.

"We're quite pleased with the level of exchange that is taking place with Governor Spitzer and his aides," said Patrick Gaspard, executive vice president for SEIU 1199, a group that fought Spitzer's health-care cuts last year.

Moreover, there are questions on how much aid will be available to address recommendations in a sweeping report this month to expand the state's college and university system.

Spitzer expects to continue to move ahead with plans to tie new accountability standards to aid to school districts and retain a commitment for billions of dollars in new school aid, said Manual Rivera, former Rochester schools superintendent and now Spitzer's deputy secretary for education.

Economic development officials said they are hopeful that regional initiatives laid out by the governor this year aren't stifled next year by the political turmoil.

"You sure are frustrated by what's happened politically, but you still want him to be successful," said Andrew Rudnick, head of the Buffalo-Niagara Partnership, a business group.

"Because I continue to believe that personally and policy-wise, he really does care about upstate and knows that the upstate economy is something he can impact," he said.

Reach Joseph Spector at jspector@gannett.com

{}Spitzer's 1st year

A look at some of the successes and failures of Gov. Eliot Spitzer's first year in office:

{}Successes

- Early in the year got agreement with the Legislature on workers' compensation reform, budget reform and lobbying reform.

- In a compromise with the Legislature, approved a $1.3 billion property-tax rebate program targeted to the middle class.

- Hired an upstate economic czar and developed city-by-city initiative.

- Limited growth in Medicaid from annual increases of 7 percent to 8 percent to less than 1 percent.

- Increased education aid by $1.8 billion to address litigation by Campaign for Fiscal Equity; adopted accountability standards for education aid and a new spending formula.

{}Failures

- Battles with state Legislature started early, with fight over next state comptroller.

- Continuing scandal over aides compiling travel documents on Republican Senate Leader Joseph Bruno has led to gridlock.

- Plan to offer driver's licenses to illegal immigrants was widely panned and pushed Spitzer's popularity to record lows. He ultimately dropped plan.

- Despite budget reforms, budget was passed a day late, included record spending that was more than double the inflation rate, and negotiations were held largely behind closed doors.

- Unable to broker deals on campaign-finance reform, a $1 billion capital plan for projects around state, a new contract for the state's horse-racing franchise and property-tax breaks for seniors.