College graduate job outlook, pay stronger this year; Bizjournals study names Orlando No. 9 hottest metro for work for young adults

BYLINE: G. Scott Thomas and Susan Lundine

More than a million college seniors are preparing to enter the real world this spring -- and their prospects are remarkably good.

The number of new college graduates hired by U.S. companies will be 17.4 percent larger this year than a year ago, says a survey by the National Association of Colleges and Employers, a human resources organization.

"The outlook this year is very good," says Andrea Koncz, the association's employment information manager. "In 2002 and '03, we saw declines in hiring because of 9/11 and the economy. But in '04, hiring turned upward, and it's been growing ever since."

That's good news, but trends can still vary substantially at the local level, even if the national forecast is upbeat. The trick for any new grad is to pinpoint the hottest markets right now.

Orlando ranked No. 9 on that list, says a new Bizjournals study that identifies the 10 large metropolitan areas where job opportunities are strongest for young adults. The study reviewed 66 big markets with at least 750,000 residents.

What makes Orlando attractive, says the study, is the area's rapidly growing population. It's expanding about 3 percent per year, adding more than 50,000 people annually. That's more than double the national average of 1.2 percent.

And the city's employment base is clicking along even faster, increasing at an annual rate of 4 percent since 2001. The net gain during that period: 195,000 jobs.

"We've had a fairly good unemployment rate and very productive job creation in our market," says Ray Gilley, president of the Metro Orlando Economic Development Commission.

Other pluses for the area, says Gilley, include a diversity in the jobs created, a business-oriented community, quality of life and a plethora of public and private colleges offering opportunities for more training. "A more educated work force is evolving," he says.

Western strength

Bizjournals analyzed 171 metros, looking for qualities that would appeal to workers in their 20s and early 30s. It gave the highest marks to places with strong growth rates, moderate costs of living and substantial pools of young adults who have college degrees and jobs.

The others on Bizjournals' list of the 10 most attractive metro areas for young workers, in order, include: Las Vegas; Phoenix; Washington; Raleigh, N.C.; Salt Lake City; Minneapolis-St. Paul; Austin, Texas; and Seattle. The Riverside-San Bernardino region in California came in at No. 10 behind Orlando.

Two of those markets -- Raleigh and Austin -- are seeing a lot of job growth, thanks to strong sectors such as biotechnology and information technology, says Hugo Sellert, research manager for Monster Worldwide Inc., the parent company of Monster.com , an online employment service.

In fact, Orlando is making a deliberate push to grow those high-tech sectors, as well as engineering and simulation, says Gary Earl, president of Workforce Central Florida. "There is a lot of growth in the kinds of business that produce jobs for new college graduates," he says. "As we grow the high-tech stuff, our reputation will change from one of being tourism-driven, and we'll climb higher on the list."

Hot employment fields for grads

So what are the hot jobs for graduates?

The National Association of Colleges and Employers survey lists 10 areas: accounting; business administration and management; computer science; electrical engineering; mechanical engineering; information sciences and systems; marketing and marketing management; computer engineering; civil engineering; and economics and finance.

The number of new college grads hired by the service sector is expected to increase by 19.8 percent this year, based on the survey's findings. Smaller growth is predicted for the manufacturing sector (up 9.5 percent) and the government/nonprofit sector (up 9 percent).

Accounting clearly is a hot job sector in Orlando.

Consider: Local accounting firm Cross, Fernandez & Riley LLP has added 17 workers since August, bringing it to 57 workers, and expects to hire seven of its college interns before summer. "Younger workers see Orlando is growing, has great weather, is a younger community and the pay scale is competitive with larger cities," says Jennifer Johnson, director of marketing and recruiting for the firm.

Pay levels are also likely to rise nationwide. The National Association of Colleges and Employers predicts the average salary offer for a new college grad this year will be 4.6 percent higher than a year ago.

In fact, Cross, Fernandez & Riley pays its college interns $20 an hour and pays its new college graduates $46,000 per year. "It's very competitive," says Johnson, who adds that she now recruits year-round to keep up with demand for new hires.

Above-average increases are expected for graduates with degrees in engineering, management-information systems and business administration. But students with liberal-arts degrees, such as psychology, political science, history and English, will see little change from last year.

Cool job markets

Midwestern and Northeastern industrial areas dominate the lower end of Bizjournals' standings.

Detroit, which ranks 66th overall, is the large metro with the bleakest outlook for workers in their 20s and 30s. The problems besetting domestic automakers, combined with the erosion of Detroit's manufacturing base, have caused the area to lose 105,100 jobs in the past five years.

Other metros that have relatively little to offer young adults are No. 65 Dayton, Ohio, No. 64 Cleveland and No. 63 Grand Rapids, Mich. "Particularly in Ohio and Michigan, the restructuring in the motor-vehicle industry is hitting hard," says Sophia Koropeckyj, an economist with Moody's Economy.com , an international research firm.

Bizjournals generated a separate list of the medium-size markets that have the most appeal for young workers. Those rankings cover 105 metros with 250,000 to 750,000 residents.

Atop those standings is Fayetteville-Springdale, Ark., home to the University of Arkansas and the headquarters of Wal-Mart Stores Inc., the largest retailer in the world. The area's job base has expanded by 3.9 percent a year since 2001.

The runners-up in the medium-area standings are Reno, Nev.; Des Moines; Madison, Wis.; and Provo, Utah.

At the bottom of this list is Hickory, N.C., a metro of 350,000 people about 60 miles northwest of Charlotte. It has lost 11,000 jobs in the past half-decade.