Florida Growth Takes Holiday

Dec. 28--TAMPA -- For the first time this decade, Florida grew by fewer than 200,000 people in a year, according to figures released Thursday by the U.S. Census Bureau.

Since 2000, Florida's annual population increase has never fallen below 200,000, according to census figures. In the year that ended July 1, it grew by less than 194,000 people.

On a percentage basis, Florida was No. 19 on the list of fastest-growing states.

The slowed growth is no surprise in Tallahassee.

"It's something we've been keeping an eye on. Everybody's stinging from the slowness in the housing market," said Dale Brill, director of the Governor's Office of Tourism, Trade and Economic Development.

The slower growth also will give the state time to examine growth management rather than just reacting to the state's breakneck pace of past years, he said.

It shows Florida needs to solve the problems of high taxes and insurance rates.

Still, Florida is not Michigan or Rhode Island, two states that lost population during the same period, or Ohio, which showed virtually no increase in population.

Also, during the past decade Florida is a leader in population growth.

-- In sheer numbers, Florida was the country's fourth-fastest-growing state from 2000 through 2007.

-- From 2000 through 2007, more people moved to Florida from other states than to the next two states combined. Those two states were Arizona and Texas.

-- Only three states -- California, Texas and New York -- attracted more new residents from outside the United States from 2000 through 2007.

Florida In Middle Of The Pack

The latest annual census data shows only Texas, California and Georgia gained more people than Florida. North Carolina, with a population increase of 191,590, was a close fifth place behind Florida.

Among percentage growth for 10 Southeastern states, Florida fell in the middle of the pack.

By percentage, at 19th, Florida trailed states including Georgia, the fifth-fastest-growing; North Carolina, ranked sixth; South Carolina, ranked 10th; Tennessee, ranked 15th; and Louisiana, ranked 16th.

Georgia's growth outpaced Florida's in percentage and sheer numbers. Georgia's population increased by 202,670. Florida, however, still has about twice as many residents as Georgia.

Some of Florida's slowing population growth could come from a decline in immigration from other states. Other sources of population growth tracked by the Census Bureau include international immigration and births.

Florida led the nation from 2000 through 2007 in drawing residents from other states. In those years, nearly 1.3 million people moved to Florida from elsewhere in the country.

But from 2006 to 2007, Florida slipped to eighth in drawing residents from other states. Texas led the country, followed by North Carolina, Georgia and Arizona.

That, Brill said, comes from other states stepping up their campaigns for tourists and retirees. There's a connection between increased tourism and more people moving to a state.

"A high percentage of people who move to a place started as a visitor," Brill said.

South Carolina budgeted $46 million last year to increase tourism. Florida budgeted $33.6 million.

"The parallel exists with retirees. They've been successful at marketing themselves," Brill said. "The competition is so much deeper with other states."

Instead, much of Florida's recent growth was fueled by other countries, helped by a weak dollar.

"That's worked in our favor," Brill said.

From July 1, 2006, through this July 1, more than twice as many people moved to Florida from other countries than those migrating from inside the United States. More than 88,000 people came from outside the United States, compared with more than 35,000 from inside the country.

The rest of the population growth came from births.

Retirees May Be Heading Elsewhere

The latest numbers could signal a change in retirees picking somewhere other than Florida.

Florida has not grown much older since 2003, when the median age was 39.1, meaning half the residents were older and half younger. In 2006, the median age was 39.8.

That is not a lot of change, and shows Florida is not losing many retirees, nor is it gaining many, said Laura Berkowitz, senior research manager for Pinellas County Economic Development.

A study of census data by a sociologist at the University of North Carolina-Asheville showed that Georgia attracted a larger surplus of people 60 and older during 2006 than did Florida.

The analysis of data by William Haas revealed three people 60 and older came to Georgia for every person who left the state. Florida attracted one person.

And efforts by other states to attract retirees may be showing up in the latest census data.

Georgia will exempt the first $35,000 in retirement income from its income tax. Tennessee is helping communities with amenities attractive to retirees, and it sends representatives to retirement-related trade shows.

Last year, both states drew more newcomers from other states than did Florida.

The newest census data also switched the population ranking of Washington and Massachusetts. Massachusetts fell from the country's 13th most populous state to 14th, and Washington went from 14th to 13th.

Reporter Neil Johnson can be reached at (813) 259-7731 or njohnson@tampatrib.com

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