higher ed

A recent Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City working paper explores the relationship between inter-state mobility, earnings gains, and initial wealth of young college graduates over time, highlighting the impact of debt. The paper Should I Stay or Should I Go? Inter-state Mobility and Earnings Gains of Young College Graduates by Andrew Glover and José Mustre-del-Río proposes a model to explain the decline in mobility.

State support for higher education in the United States over the last four decades can best be characterized as having fluctuations and shifts in priorities. Using fiscal year (FY) 1980 as a starting point, while overall state support for higher education has grown, it has done so with volatility driven in part by decreased revenue as a result of recessions, and it has frequently taken years for state support to recover to pre-recession levels. In four states, state support on a constant 1983-dollar basis is still less than was spent in 1980. Looking back at the impacts of the Great Recession of 2008 is even more illustrative of the long recovery period after recessions; in FY2024, just 20 states and Washington, D.C., spent more in constant dollars than they did in FY2008. An additional nine states surpassed their FY2008 spending levels at some point after FY2011 but did not maintain that through FY2024. In fact, just one state, North Dakota, has provided support for higher education above FY 2008 values in every year since.

In this Digest issue, SSTI continues its examination on the state of higher education. Today, we start with rising student loan debt, which research shows has dire consequences on borrowers, including delayed home ownership, hindered retirement savings, and financial stress.

In the last 20 years, college tuition has doubled, making tuition and required fees the major component of the rising costs of attending college. Figure 1 shows that the average tuition and fees at public four-year schools increased by 84% between the 1999-2000 and 2019-2020 academic years, far faster than the 15.7% increase in median household income during that period (note this period was chosen to avoid pandemic era swings in data).

Total student loan debt in the United States increased 558% from the first quarter of 2003 to the second quarter of 2024, increasing from $240 billion to $1.58 trillion, according to Federal Reserve Bank of New York data. However, as seen in Figure 1, the rate of change has remained essentially flat since the first quarter of 2021, coinciding with a dip in undergraduate enrollment and federal loan forgiveness programs totaling nearly $160 billion, as the U.S. Department of Education reported.

With classes resuming for the fall term, SSTI continues its reflection on the state of higher education. In last week's issue, today's and next week's, we’re examining where higher ed has been and where it currently stands. The post-secondary education system is the cornerstone of the American innovation system—as an R&D performer, moving research into the marketplace, offering technical assistance to companies, and supplying a skilled workforce. The challenges are significant—eroding public support for universities, cuts to state funding during each economic downturn that takes years to recover, and burgeoning tuition and student debt.
 
In today’s issue, we consider public attitudes toward higher education and its value. Attitudes have changed over time, from thinking of a college education as something for the wealthy to thinking that all high school graduates should go to college and now back to a growing opinion that not everyone needs to go to college. We also consider different societal contexts that have influenced public attitudes toward higher education, such as the rising costs of attending, the expected return on investment, and political affiliation.

For the last 40 years, higher education has been the dominant performer of basic research in the United States, but there has been a slide in higher education’s share over the last 20 years as businesses have increased their performance of basic R&D (Figure 1). If the current trendline continues, businesses will soon surpass higher education as basic R&D performers and become the predominant basic R&D performer just as they have been in applied R&D for decades.

Public perceptions of higher education are complex and multifaceted. A Chronicle of Higher Education 2023 report found that while Americans believe in the value of a college credential, they are not convinced higher education is fulfilling its promise to society; nonetheless, many recent polls, surveys, and reports also conclude that people, whether they have a four-year degree or not, would advise others to pursue one. Respondents are mixed on whether they think four-year institutions do a good job educating their students—or that colleges and universities greatly benefit graduates. Alternatives like trade schools or community colleges appear to many Americans as a viable path to a successful livelihood. However, colleges’ value to communities and society draws skepticism. Overall, the Chronicle found that respondents felt higher education is important for individual attainment, but not necessarily for the greater good.

By 2031, 72 percent of jobs in the US will require postsecondary education and/or training, according to a 2023 report by Georgetown University. The authors contend, “Postsecondary education is no longer just the preferred pathway to middle-class jobs—it is, increasingly, the only pathway.”

But the average cost of college tuition and fees at public four-year institutions has risen 179.2% over the last two decades, according to the Education Data Initiative  and a public seemingly less convinced about the worth of higher education,—two-year colleges, also referred to as community colleges or technical schools, are seen as a reliable alternative for a quality postsecondary education, and are valued for their affordability and accessibility to obtaining the degrees or credentials needed to ensure a dynamic and skilled national workforce.

With classes resuming for the fall term, SSTI thought now would be a good time to reflect on the state of higher education. In this issue and the September 5 issue, we’ll examine where higher ed has been and where it currently stands. The post-secondary education system is the cornerstone of the American innovation system—as R&D performer, moving research into the marketplace, offering technical assistance to companies, and supplying a skilled workforce. The challenges are significant—eroding public support for universities, cuts to state funding during each economic downturn that takes years to recover, and burgeoning tuition and student debt.