Making sense of Madness?

Ranging from diligent research to coin flips, pure chalk to cutest mascot, everyone has their own strategy for completing an NCAA college basketball championship bracket. At SSTI, we’ve completed our brackets based on NSF’s university data for R&D expenditures and doctorates produced, as well as the selection committee’s rankings. The chart included with this article displays the data.

Update: The bracket that predicted the men's tournament using a combination of R&D expenditures, doctorates produced and NCAA ranking finished in the top 10 percent of all brackets submitted to the NCAA's tournament challenge. The NSF data-only men's backets finished in the bottom 20 percent. The expenditure and combined women's brackets did predict Stanford's success, but were otherwise not particularly strong. More details for all of the men’s and women’s brackets below.

Men's Tournament

We completed the brackets four different strategies.

1. NSF’s 2015 data for R&D expenditures
   Winner: Michigan
   Cinderella: UC Davis
   See the full bracket (note that NCAA recorded UC Davis as NC Central)
   Performance through 2nd round: 37 points scored and 8 teams remain
   Performance through Final: 41 points, 16th percentile of NCAA challenge
2. NSF’s 2015 data for number of earned doctorates
   Winner: Michigan
   Cinderella(s): Providence, Princeton
   See the full bracket
   Performance through 2nd round: 42 points scored and 9 teams remain
   Performance through Final: 42 points, 16th percentile of NCAA challenge
3. NCAA selection committee’s rankings
   Winner: Villanova
   Cinderella: N/A
   See the full bracket
   Performance through 2nd round: 50 points scored and 10 teams remain
   Performance through Final: 82 points, 73rd percentile of NCAA challenge
4. Summary ranking along all three metrics
   Winner: North Carolina
   Cinderella: Providence
   See the full bracket
   Performance through 2nd round: 47 points scored and 12 teams remain
   Performance through Final: 111 points, 90th percentile of NCAA challenge

Note: Cinderella is defined as the last remaining double-digit seed(s).

We will be updating this page weekly throughout the tournament to track performance. Stay tuned! The data table for the men’s tournament teams is below.

Women's Tournament

We completed the brackets four different strategies.

1. NSF’s 2015 data for R&D expenditures
   Winner: Washington
   Cinderella: South Florida
   Performance through 2nd round: 6 teams remain
   Best finish: Stanford in Final Four
2. NSF’s 2015 data for number of earned doctorates
   Winner: Texas
   Cinderella: Auburn
   Performance through 2nd round: 8 teams remain
   Best finish: Texas and UCLA in Sweet Sixteen 
3. Most recent RPI for each team
   Winner: Connecticut
   Cinderella: N/A
   Performance through 2nd round: 13 teams remain
   Best finish: Calling South Carolina in Championship (had them losing to UConn)
4. Summary ranking along all three metrics
   Winner(s): Stanford, UCLA
   Cinderella(s): South Florida, Auburn
   Performance through 2nd round: 11 teams remain
   Best finish: Stanford in Final Four

Note: Cinderella is defined as the last remaining double-digit seed(s). The NCAA does not offer an interactive bracket completion tool for the Women’s tournament, so we do not have completed brackets for each strategy.

We will be updating this page weekly throughout the tournament to track performance. Stay tuned! The data table for the men’s tournament teams is below.