Demographic Shifts or Brain Drain? The Changing Workforce of New Hampshire and the U.S.

Decreases in the number of young adults in the state are more a result of fewer children being born 25 to 35 years ago, and not because of a substantial brain drain or outmigration of talent from New Hampshire, according to a task force convened by New Hampshire Gov. John Lynch. However, attracting and retaining younger workers to the state is imperative because of the large share of baby-boomers in the workforce that will be retiring in the next decade. Coupling the state's skilled workforce needs with the demographic trend of a 23 percent reduction of 25 to 34 year-olds in New Hampshire from 1990 to 2000, the task force presented to the Governor recommendations for boosting the number of young adults in the state.

New Hampshire's concerns are similar to select states across the U.S., as many regions are witnessing an aging of their population and a lack of in-migration. While the proportion of the entire U.S. population 65 years and older will be 13 percent in 2010, it sharply will increase to 16.1 percent in 2020 and 19.3 percent in 2030 before leveling off at about 20 percent in 2050, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. However, these demographic shifts in age already are apparent in various states and communities.

To attract and retain younger workers in New Hampshire, the task force produced several recommendations, including:

• Encourage secondary education leaders to advise students on the potential benefits of staying in New Hampshire;
• Establish a statewide leadership development program of high-achieving college students;
• Create an informational web portal that engages students and encourages college graduates to stay in New Hampshire;
• Provide awards to companies doing a good job of recruiting and retaining workers;
• Engage the University System of New Hampshire to create a loan repayment assistance program; and,
• Improve child care options, especially regarding affordability, for parents.

While the aggregate trends in migration for states and regions merit further study, so do the relative levels and causes of migration.

The New Hampshire report includes a reference to IRS data showing 21,000 more people moved into the state between 2001 and 2005 than left the state. This net change is the result of 210,000 people moving into New Hampshire and 189,000 leaving New Hampshire during this time period. These churning numbers compare to a statewide population of 1.32 million.

For the nation as a whole, most adults (57 percent) have not lived outside of their home state, whereas 15 percent have lived in four or more states, according to a Dec 2008 report from the Pew Research Center on mobility in the U.S.. Texas leads the nation with 75.8 percent of its native-born adults still residing there, while only 28.2 percent of native-born adult Alaskans remain in the state.

Nevada leads the country with the highest percentage of its total population that was born in another state (86.4 percent), while New York has the lowest percentage of its population born in another state (18.8 percent).

The webpage of the Pew migration report "Who Moves? Who Stays Put? Where's Home?" containing maps and data that highlight the number of people moving in and moving out of each state is available at: http://pewsocialtrends.org/maps/migration/

The New Hampshire report, The Governor's Task Force for the Recruitment and Retention of a Younger Workforce for the State of New Hampshire, is available at:

http://www.usnh.edu/initiatives/documents/TaskForceFinal061809.pdf