DOD already sees adverse effects from climate change at priority installations

Could climate change negatively impact the defense installations important to companies and communities in your state? Chances are good that it already does. A new Department of Defense report to Congress reveals all but six of 79 mission assurance priority installations within DOD are experiencing negative climate change effects such as recurrent flooding, drought, desertification, wildfires, or thawing permafrost. Some of the installations are experiencing multiple effects.  Additionally, four of the final six are expected to see negative climate change impacts within the next 20 years, or, as the report states in “only” 20 years.

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Flooding is the most prevalent of the negative effects with 53 installations reporting it as a recurrent problem already. Seven more installations are considered vulnerable to flooding within the next two decades as either sea level rises or weather patterns change. One example cited to illustrate the nature of the problem is the Joint Base Langley-Eustis in Virginia, which has seen a 14-inch rise in sea level since 1930 that is attributed to localized land subsidence and sea level rise. The base has a mean sea level elevation of only three feet, so the likelihood of more frequent and recurrent flood damage is anticipated given expected sea level rise in even the most conservative climate models from polar ice melt, warming ocean temperatures and escalating storm intensity.

Drought, brought on by rising average temperatures and changing patterns of rainfall, already negatively effects 43 of the 79 installations included in the analysis. Five more are expected to experience drought issues as climate change worsens during the next twenty years.

Wildfires are a present issue for 32 of the 35 Air Force installations surveyed. Dry conditions and gusty winds can rapidly escalate fires started by training with live ammunition, as was experienced in two related Colorado wildfires in March 2018 that burned 3,300 acres, destroyed three homes and caused the evacuation of 250 more.

Climate change is also identified as an issue of vulnerability with mission impacts on a global scale with partner nations. Examples include water security engagements in the Chad Basin and Tanzania as well as Artic mission analysis with Scandinavian countries.

DOD summarizes some of the current research efforts underway and projects future needs to help address and reduce the risks to the defense mission and the nation’s investment in defense installations. Two R&D programs highlighted are the Strategic Environmental R&D Program and the Environmental Security Technology Certification Program.  (Note: there are early March deadlines for funding opportunities in each program.) Future research needs mentioned briefly include “research and products that fuse climate science, design and decision science methods in the context of DOD/Service planning, operations and management” and “research on materials fragility and implications for infrastructure/building design.”

The report illuminates how climate resilience to ensure mission resiliency is an increasingly important factor in Defense strategic and operational decisions. While not addressed in the report, for local economies near these 79 priority installations, one can anticipate climate change related damage severity risks and mission assurance vulnerability assessments will influence decisions regarding future investments, relocations and base closures.

The 22-page report is available here.