National VC investment over the past five years has seen significant swings, first driven by pandemic impacts and rebounds, then by the rocket ride of AI. According to PitchBook data, national VC activity below $100 million declined from nearly 10,500 deals in 2020 to just under 8,200 in 2025, a 22% drop. Over the same period, the total capital invested increased by just over $5 billion (6%). The trend of more funding into fewer deals is highlighted by the median deal size more than doubling to over $4 million (Fig 1). These macro trends are important as they set the stage for what is happening at the state level.