recession

The 2020 pandemic was unique when it came to changes in the labor market. Unlike in previous recessions, most layoffs from the pandemic were temporary. While employment is back to pre-pandemic levels, the recovery has been uneven across states and industries, leaving some states still with a deficit while others have grown past 2019 levels. Utah, for example, according to an economic commentary by Martin DeLuca and Roberto Pinheiro of the Cleveland Fed, observed employment growth above 6% since 2019, while Vermont remains 6.5 percent below its 2019 average employment. Similarly, while services and sales occupations are down 6% and 7%, respectively, since 2019, the authors found that management and computer and engineering occupations are up 7% and 10%, respectively.

A new report from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) indicates that the U.S. economy through 2030 will have $8 trillion (as measured in 2019 dollars) less in economic activity than the CBO projected just five months ago.  Combined with SSTI’s recent examination of economic recovery that found it took 20 states at least four years for their economy to recover back to Great Recession levels, the impact on state budgets can be expected to be long lasting. In fact, a new examination by SSTI finds that through FY 2018, 15 states’ general revenue funds had not recovered to FY 2008 levels (as measured in 2018 dollars) based on data collected by the National Association of State Budget Officers (NASBO). For an additional 16 states, it took seven to 10 years to reach FY 2008 levels.

As the world begins to emerge from the “Great Lockdown” and governments increasingly turn their efforts towards reopening economies, many will look to past recessions for lessons on recovery. This edition of Useful Stats examines the rate of real GDP recovery by state following the recessions of 2001 and 2008.