The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System recently published a new FEDS Notes article titled Monitoring AI Adoption in the US Economy. The article examines trends in AI adoption in the U.S. using three publicly available surveys: the Business Trends and Outlook Survey (BTOS), Real-Time Population Survey (RPS), and Survey of Business Uncertainty. These surveys respectively capture data at the firm-level, individual-level, and from business executives. Below are some key points from the article:
Approximately 18% of firms have adopted AI as of the end of 2025, while over 20% expect to use AI in the first half of 2026, as revealed in the author’s analysis of BTOS data. Prior to a methodological change in late 2025, the adoption rate was found to have grown by 68% (3.9 percentage points) over the preceding year ending in September but decelerated in Q2 2025.
The author noted considerable heterogeneity across firm size and industry cohorts, and that adoption appears to correlate with size but is stronger than would be expected based on size alone among the smallest firms (those with 1-49 employees).
Individuals, on the other hand, have higher overall adoption rates; work-related generative AI (GenAI) adoption stands at about 41% of the workforce according to the author’s analysis of RPS data. Non-work-related usage was about 50% among the population as of November 2025. These metrics grew by around 31% (9.7 percentage points) and 26% (10.4 percentage points), respectively, for the year ending in November.
Note that the RPS asks about the more specific GenAI (e.g., ChatGPT and Gemini), rather than BTOS’s questions on broader AI usage (e.g., machine learning, virtual agents, and voice recognition).
The author also explores facets of AI investment trends, intensive margins, and more. Click here to read the full text.
This page was prepared by SSTI using Federal funds under award ED22HDQ3070129 from the Economic Development Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce. The statements, findings, conclusions, and recommendations are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Economic Development Administration or the U.S. Department of Commerce.