Recent Research

Since 1980, billion-dollar climate disasters in the United States have increased an astonishing 749%, from averaging 3.3 throughout the 1980s to 28 in 2023 alone. These data from the NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information include floods, wildfires, droughts, severe storms, tropical cyclones, and winter storms. The finding is consistent with the Fifth National Climate Assessment, released last year, that concluded the rise is due to a combination of increased exposure (i.e., more assets at risk), vulnerability (i.e., how much damage a hazard of given intensity—wind speed, or flood depth, for example—causes at a location), and the fact that climate change is increasing the frequency of some types of extremes that lead to billion-dollar disasters. Because climate change will only get worse given its current trajectory, it is reasonable to expect the number and severity of disaster events will continue to grow. Research shows TBED, systems-based planning, and conventional economic development have roles to play in mitigating future risk.

The challenge of attracting and retaining skilled manufacturing talent consistently ranks as a top concern in the industry. Recent findings from the National Association of Manufacturers (NAM) show that more than 70% of industry leaders cite workforce issues as their primary challenge for the past year, outpacing supply chain disruptions and rising raw material costs. To better understand this challenge, the Manufacturing Institute has released a new report exploring how location influences manufacturing companies’ talent development efforts. The study surveyed over 100 manufacturing firms, asking about strategies for attracting and recruiting new workers in rural versus urban settings to identify key workforce challenges for rural and urban manufacturing firms and to uncover solutions they have implemented to address their immediate and long-term workforce needs. 

A study titled Incubators, accelerators and urban economic development,[1] published in the Urban Studies Journal last year, found positive impacts on employment and access to capital for participants.

Differences in per capita innovation capacity between urban and rural regions are not as large as previously believed according to a recent working paper from the National Center for Science and Engineering Statistics (NCSES). The study’s conclusions reduce the difference by a factor of three.

The researchers made modifications to earlier definitions of the “inventive class” to better distinguish occupations that are likely to contribute to innovation as measured by patent production. This new definition of the inventive class includes core occupations of science, engineering, and technology as identified by NSF, and also includes other occupations that have been shown in earlier work to be associated with patenting. The authors assert that most prior studies comparing regional invention capacity fail to consider differences in the composition of inventive populations in different regions. They make the case that the set of occupations associated with patenting in rural regions is different from the set of occupations associated with patenting in urban regions.

States with top-ranking university AI research programs garner a greater number of Phase II AI-related SBIR awards, according to a working paper from the Department of Economics at the University of North Carolina at Greensboro. Researchers there investigated state variations in the distribution of Phase II SBIR research projects focused on artificial intelligence (AI). The authors of the paper hypothesized that the state-by-state variations are related to the presence of a research university with a “Top 10” AI program in each state. Analysis showed that three out of the five states receiving the most funding for AI-related Phase II SBIR projects had a top-ranked AI research university. Although proximity to a top research university may be beneficial to Phase II SBIR applicants with AI-focused projects, it is not the only path to success in capturing SBIR funds.

Accelerators, incubators and entrepreneurial assistance programs work to ensure their startups understand their product’s market competition, customers, and supply chain. As it turns out, that’s also good advice for small research-based firms trying to move from SBIR proof-of-concept funding to securing the larger Phase II awards. A survey of approximately 250 National Institutes of Health (NIH) Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) program awardees by researchers finds market information from suppliers, customers, and competitors to be key for small entrepreneurial firms to increase publicly funded research and development (R&D) effectiveness.

A recent study found that the use of industrial robots (UIR) can reduce a country’s overall ecological footprint while simultaneously promoting economic growth. This is through timesaving, green employment, and energy upgrading effects that increase as the level of economic development and human capital within the country increases. The researchers also observed that the effect of UIR in reducing the ecological footprint is more evident in countries that are members of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) – which includes some of the world’s most carbon-intensive nations. Therefore, UIR can simultaneously be used to further economic growth while increasing environmental protection and reducing contributions that accelerate climate change.

From 2005 to 2008, the clean technology industry experienced a venture capital boom where the share of total VC investments in clean energy technologies tripled before falling dramatically. Many studies have concluded that the boom and bust in cleantech as an equity investment focus was because clean energy does not fit the venture capital “model.” A recent study from the National Bureau of Economic Research explores other possible reasons for the failure of venture capital to remain interested in clean energy.

The NBER researchers propose that a lack of demand for clean technologies impacted investors’ decisions, especially when coupled with the failure of the cap and trade bill in Congress in 2009. Additionally, they suggest clean energy firms may be unable to earn oversized profits rapidly – a priority for VC investors – due to difficulties differentiating products and increasing market power. A third concern or explanation the researchers explored is the role of governments and public sector investments in funding clean energy startups.

A recent study found that merit aid awards increased four-year bachelor’s degree completion rates for students – especially among students that were unlikely to pursue the four-year program in the absence of financial aid. A team of researchers from the National Bureau of Economic Research assessed the marginal effects that merit aid from the Susan Thompson Buffett Foundation (STBF) has on students attending public colleges in Nebraska. The research also showed that the projected lifetime earnings of the students outweighed the costs of funding merit aid for low-income, people of color, urban, and first-generation college students in Nebraska.

A team of researchers recently assessed the relationship between angel investing and venture capital (VC) for startups. Although they found some variation in the performance of companies based on their share of angel and VC financing, there was no clear indication that angel investing provides any unique value for a startup.

The research addressed three questions. First, the research analyzed if there are notable differences in the added value to startups when they utilize angel versus VC financing. Second, the research assessed if angel financing and VC financing are substitutes or complements to each other. The last question that the research sought to answer was if the order of angel and VC financing across deal rounds for a startup, referred to as the financing sequence, is related to the probability of a successful exit for the startup.

Adding to the debate about whether smaller or larger businesses play an outsized role in the nation’s economy, a new Census Bureau report finds that the concentration of both older and larger firms has continued to increase in the U.S. economy over the last several decades, giving these firms an overall greater impact on employment and job growth than younger and smaller firms. Specifically, the report indicates that decreases in the national share of startup firms over the last several decades lead to an increased concentration of older firms, which in turn has had a greater impact on national employment and job creation than an increase in larger firms over the same period.

Faculty of the nation’s higher education institutions have long used research publications and citations as a measure of success. A new working paper posted by the National Bureau of Economic Researchers (NBER) suggests a select group of research publications may do more than gain the authors tenure and celebrity in their chosen field: these works are correlated with reductions in local disease-related mortality. In an era of marked increases in anti-intellectualism among legislatures, is this finding an additional argument to add to TBED policymakers’ arsenal for increasing state and regional investments targeting R&D?

Does Research Save Lives? The Local Spillovers of Biomedical Research on Mortality, written by Rebecca McKibbin (University of Sidney) and Bruce A. Weinberg (Ohio State University), reports the findings of the authors’ study using the PubMed database, the geographic location of the publishing biomedical researchers, and the timing and intensity of local mortality rates by disease. They conclude each “additional research publication on average reduces local mortality from a disease by 0.35 percent.”